Colombia¡¯s solid macroeconomic institutional setting, grounded on a rules-based fiscal framework, a flexible exchange rate, and a modern inflation-targeting regime, has been the cornerstone of its macroeconomic stability. Yet, the pace of economic growth has been slowing. Colombia has significant potential to enhance its contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth by increasing productivity - which has remained stagnant for decades - and further diversifying and expanding its exports. Addressing infrastructure gaps, improving educational outcomes, and strengthening institutions are crucial steps to further boosting the country's economic development.
Macroeconomic imbalances that surfaced during a strong post-pandemic economic recovery are correcting rapidly, with declining inflation and fiscal and external deficits. The economy expanded 0.6% in 2023, as the needed un-winding of stimulus policies and heightened policy uncertainty affected fixed investment. The official poverty and extreme poverty rates declined in 2023, marked by higher labor market earnings. The economy is projected to expand 1.5 percent in 2024 and slightly above the 2.9 percent potential growth rate in the following years, as inflation and interest rates recede.
Colombia faces significant social and geographic inequalities, including in human capital. To tackle poverty and stimulate prosperity more equally across all regions, it is crucial to foster more efficient and inclusive labor markets, reform the social security system andthe intergovernmental fiscal transfer system, and strengthen subnational government capacity to ensure widespread access to quality public services.
Colombia faces increasingly accentuated climate-related challenges. Climate-related events disrupt livelihoods and damage assets throughout the country with increasing frequency and severity Colombia¡¯s fossil fuel sector, a large source of fiscal revenue, exports and foreign direct investment (FDI), is vulnerable to global decarbonization. An orderly, gradual and fiscally responsible transition towards a more diversified and climate-resilient economy over time, aligning it to the country¡¯s ambitious climate goals would be beneficial for meeting the country¡¯s climate goals and long-term economic prospects.
Last Updated: Oct 09, 2024