Recent economic developments and outlook for Gabon
- Between 2022 and 2023, growth in Gabon decreased from 3.0% to 2.4%*. While oil and agricultural production remained strong, a weaker global demand, higher fuel costs, and railway damages from severe weather events negatively affected wood and manganese production. Meanwhile, the trade surplus remained high in 2023 but was affected by lower oil prices and a weaker performance of wood and manganese exports.
- The economy showed resilience to global economic headwinds and political events.
- Inflationary pressures in Gabon eased as a result of tight monetary policies by the regional central bank, price controls, and a drop in global inflation.
- As a result of moderate growth and lacking economic participation, Gabon has not seen a substantial decrease in poverty in recent years.
- Gabon's fiscal revenues increased to 23.4% of GDP in 2023, bolstered by strong oil production, high corporate income tax receipts from record profits in the oil industry in 2022, and enhanced tax collection efforts.
- Gabon's modest growth should continue in the coming years, but the country faces many challenges such as a potential gradual depletion of oil reserves, rising borrowing costs, and strong social demands and spending pressures, which could quickly lead to an unmanageable fiscal and debt positions.
- To ensure a more robust, inclusive, and job-based growth, improvements are needed in the management of public finances, in the quality and access to basic public services, and in key transport and energy infrastructure.
Real GDP growth (percent)
* The 2024 Gabon Economic Update is based on data available as of June 2024.
Spotlight: Designing Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Forestry
- Thanks to major conservation policies and sustainable practices, Gabonese forests provide the world with essential climate services. Each year, Gabon¡¯s forests absorb around 140 million tons of CO2. The deforestation rate, at 0.05% in 2010-2020, is low compared to most countries.
- Gabon became the first African nation to receive performance-based payments for emission reductions, securing $150 million through the UN-led Central African Forest Initiative.
- While maintaining its forests, Gabon was able to create an important wood industry. By imposing a log export ban and establishing the Nkok special economic zone in 2010, it led the timber industry to emerge as an important pillar of the economy, accounting for 3.2% of GDP and 6% of exports in 2023.
- Providing almost 15,000 jobs, the forestry sector has become the leading private sector employer and a key element of Gabon¡¯s diversification program.
The 2010 log export ban and the setting up of a special economic zone led to an increase in value-added of wood exports in Gabon (evolution in USD million)
- The forestry sector in 2023, contributed 41.9 billion CFA francs to the national budget (0.3% of GDP), almost four times more than in 2016.
- Gabon¡¯s tax policies for forestry include a land area fee that promotes sustainable forestry by applying lower rates for certified concession areas, as well as wood export duties that are levied at lower rates for higher value-added exports to incentivize the local processing industry.
- To further promote sustainable forestry and contribute to public finances, Gabon could consider reforms in its forestry tax policy.
- The planned revision of the forestry code could provide an opportunity for policies that increase fiscal revenues while fostering sustainable wood production methods.
- Policies also need to be coherent across sectors. The success of reforms would rely on including different stakeholders, considering the interests of forest communities, civil society, and forestry, agriculture, and mining firms.
Gabon¡¯s forest-related revenues had a fourfold increase between 2016 and 2023
