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Bordered to the north by Guinea Bissau, Senegal, and Mali, and to the south by Sierra Leone, Liberia, and C?te d¡¯Ivoire, Guinea enjoys sizeable endowments of natural resources, energy opportunities, and arable land. In 2024, the country's population is estimated at 14.53 million. As the country's largest employer, the agriculture sector plays a key role in poverty reduction and rural development, providing income for 57% of rural households, and employment for 52% of the labour force.

In addition to this sector, natural resources, processing industries and services are economic assets for Guinea. But to reap their full benefits and accelerate the process of structural transformation, the country needs to improve its governance.

Guinea also derives most of its export revenues from mining. Experience shows, however, that mining and hydropower can have direct and indirect negative impacts on biodiversity and the environment. These potential risks will need to be carefully managed. Another major challenge for Guinea is youth unemployment and gender inequality.

Political Situation

In July 2023, following the historic verdict concluding the trial for the September 28, 2009, massacre, which marked an important step in the fight against impunity, the National Council for Transition presented the draft constitution, which is expected to be put to a referendum at the end of 2024, a prerequisite for the presidential election scheduled for 2025.

In September, a delegation from ECOWAS met with the government to assess the progress of the transition timetable as agreed. As part of efforts to establish a reliable electoral register, the government reaffirmed its commitment to follow the ten steps of the transition and emphasized the need for financial support.

Economic Overview

• After growing at 6.7% in 2023, driven by strong mining sector performance, growth is expected to moderate to 5.3% in 2024, partly due to the impact of the December 2023 fuel depot explosion and power outages on the non-mining sector.
• Inflation accelerated to an average of 8.5% during the first half of 2024, due to the temporary impacts of the December 2023 fuel depot explosion and the reduced electricity supply. However, after peaking at 9.3% year-on-year in January 2024, just after the explosion, inflation dropped to 8.1% in June 2024.
• Increased capital spending and higher interest payments, combined with slightly lower revenues due to the impact of the explosion on the non-mining sector, widen the fiscal deficit, estimated to reach 3.0% of GDP by end-2024.
• The increase in real GDP per capita, combined with a slowdown in food inflation, is expected to reduce the poverty rate (less than $3.65 per day, 2017 purchasing power parity) to 49.9% in 2024.
• Growth is projected to be sustained at an average of 6.2% in 2025-2026 driven mainly by investment.
• Downside risks include uncertainties in the timing of the political transition, which could slow reform implementation, and spillovers from conflicts elsewhere in the world, which could trigger a new wave of trade disruptions and inflation. On the upside, the start of the Simandou iron mine operations would boost exports and growth.

Last Updated: Oct 23, 2024

In the context of the ongoing political transition in Guinea, a Country Engagement Note (CEN), rather than a Country Partnership Framework (CPF), is being prepared for the 2025¨C2027 period and will be submitted to the Board of Directors in the second quarter of 2025. A completion and learning review of the last CPF (which concluded in June 2023) is currently being finalized.

Guinea's three-year IDA20 allocation amounts to $521 million. A sum of $226 million was committed during the 2023 and 2024 fiscal years to support the scaling up of ongoing operations in the areas of social protection, local governance, regional statistics, digital connectivity, and health security. A potential budget support operation previously planned for the 2024 fiscal year is still under discussion and is now scheduled for the 2025 fiscal year. Operations aimed at strengthening health system transformation, improving access to clean water and sanitation, climate resilience, food security and fisheries, access to electricity, and secondary education for girls could follow during the 2025¨C2026 fiscal years.

The current portfolio includes 14 projects with a total commitment of approximately $967 million through seven national operations and seven regional operations. This commitment also includes two co-financing trust funds (Global Financing Facility) amounting to $26 million. As of September 30, 2024, the undisbursed balance stood at $656 million, representing 68% of the total commitment. The national disbursement ratio for investment project financing (IPF) for the 2024 fiscal year was 29.32%. The disbursement ratio for the 2025 fiscal year was 9.82% at the end of September 2024, with an annualized ratio of 39.29% for IPF. The portfolio covers most key sectors of the economy, including health, education, social protection, energy, agriculture, mining, and the environment.

Last Updated: Oct 23, 2024

Here are some of the advances achieved by World Bank-financed projects:

Strengthening Health Systems

Guinea¡¯s multifaceted interventions in the health sector have improved reproductive, maternal, neonatal, and child health services and strengthened national systems for public health emergency prevention, preparedness, and response.

a.      Strengthening Reproductive, Maternal, and Child Health Services

The Health Services Improvement Project and the Health Services and Capacity Strengthening Project (PRSCS), implemented in the health regions of Kankan and Kindia between December 2018 and June 2024, significantly improved the utilization of reproductive, maternal, and child health services, with around six million visits by women and children to health services.

The Guinea Health System Transformation Project, with financing of $95 million in September 2024, aims to strengthen the successful interventions of the PRSCS and expand their implementation to seven of the country¡¯s eight administrative regions (all except the region including Conakry). The loan agreements ($80 million equivalent) and grants ($10 million equivalent) for the project were signed on October 1, 2024.

One of the most important achievements of the PRSCS has been the revitalization of health facilities in the two beneficiary regions. Thanks to the project's funding, almost all health facilities have been provided with essential medicines, medical equipment and supplies, enabling them to respond effectively to the health needs of the local population. In addition, the PRSCS has also improved the operational capacity of these facilities by installing solar energy sources and solar-powered water supply systems (boreholes) in 81 health facilities in the target regions.

In addition, the project has provided all the training courses with trained and motivated human resources to deliver quality care to the population. As a result, 400 health agents were recruited and trained to provide mother-and-child care in health facilities, and 232 community health agents and 2,351 community relays provided a package of community health services to deliver promotional (including condom distribution), preventive and curative care.

The PRSCS set up the process of targeting the extreme poor (indigents), which was the precursor initiative and provided the basis for the establishment of the unified social register by the Government of Guinea. As a result, 162,729 indigents were identified and issued with indigent cards, giving them free access to essential health services.

b.      Improving Guinea's Capacity to Prevent, Detect, and Respond to Health Emergencies, Including Epidemics in West and Central Africa

The consequences of the 2014¨C2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa and the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the urgent need for resilient health systems and rapid responses to health crises, including epidemics. The Regional Health Security Program for West and Central Africa (PreSeS) was approved on December 19, 2023, and launched on October 3, 2024, to support Guinea¡¯s health infrastructure and prepare for future health emergencies.

This regional program, based on the ¡°One Health¡± approach, builds on the excellent outcomes of the Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement (REDISSE 1) project and the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and other public health threats. PreSeS also aims to emphasize the continuity of essential health services before, during, and after health emergencies. To achieve this, the program will strengthen operational multisectoral platforms, support the leadership of regional and global organizations such as the West African Health Organization (WAHO), the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), and foster collaboration with the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other partners.

Access to Electricity

ľ¹ÏÓ°Ôº¡¯s active portfolio in Guinea¡¯s energy sector amounts to $154 million. It includes the Guinea Electricity Access Scale-Up Project ($50 million), the Gambia River Basin Development Organization (OMVG) Project ($29 million), and the Guinea-Mali Interconnection Project ($75 million), which are co-financed by IDA and other donors.

ľ¹ÏÓ°Ôº is preparing a second phase of the Guinea Electricity Access Scale-Up Project ($200 million). To help Guinea address the electricity crisis, the World Bank also supported the country with $24 million to import energy from Senegal.

Support for Food Security through Commercial Agriculture Development

The Guinea Commercial Agriculture Development Project (PDACG) is being implemented using a multi-phase approach, with a first phase of $100 million launched in September 2020, set to conclude in 2026. To date, the project has mobilized $12 million in private investments aimed at developing and modernizing targeted value chains that can immediately attract private investors, such as poultry, fruits and vegetables, fonio, maize, and cashew nuts. In 2024, 8,579 jobs were created through investments in the various value chains supported by the project.

In order to contribute to food security, the project developed a partnership in 2024 with the World Food Programme (WFP) to develop 2,000 hectares of lowlands for rice production in Bok¨¦ and Kindia. Support is also expected for the processing of local rice and the strengthening of the resilience of 23,000 people, half of whom are women. Additionally, support for food security and the development of commercial agriculture also involves the establishment of an efficient food safety and quality system. As such, the project contributed to the training of laboratory technicians at the Guinean Institute of Standardization and Metrology (IGNM) and improved the technical capacity of the National Quality Control Office by providing inspection kits and other necessary equipment for food quality control.

Last Updated: Oct 23, 2024

In addition to the World Bank Group, other active development partners of Guinea are the African Development Bank, the European Union, the Islamic Development Bank, the French Development Agency and USAID.

The United Nations is coordinating interventions aimed at reforming security. Guinea also benefits in this area from bilateral aid and support from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union.

As for the new development partners¡ªseveral Arab countries, China, Brazil, Russia and India, they intervene in sectors which the country has a comparative advantage, namely mining and agriculture, or those where public-private partnerships could quickly turn into strictly privately-owned activities.

Last Updated: Oct 23, 2024