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Mauritania is essentially a desert country, with vast expanses of pastoral land and only 0.5% of arable land. The population is about 4.9 million (2023), and the density of 5 inhabitants per square kilometer makes it one of the least densely populated countries in the world. Further, more than half of Mauritanians (61.2%) live in urban areas (2023).

Political Context

President Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani, in office since 2019, was re-elected on June 29, 2024, with a focus on an ambitious economic and social agenda, youth empowerment, anti-corruption, and security enhancement. His second term emphasizes national stability, social unity, and human capital development through programs in education, vocational training, and social protection. A new government led by new Prime Minister Moctar Ould Diay, was appointed in August 2024, reflecting the President's priorities. Key ministers in Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Interior were reappointed to reinforce security and diplomatic efforts amidst regional security challenges.

Economic Overview

• Real GDP growth is estimated to have moderated to 6.5% in 2023 down from 6.8% in 2022, supported by the expansion of services and higher iron ore and fish exports.  Inflation continued its downward trend, reaching 2.7% (y/y) in August 2024, compared to 3.7% (y/y) in August 2023. The downward trend is expected to continue through 2024 to reach an annual average inflation of 2.7% (y/y).
• The fiscal balance deficit narrowed to 2.4% of GDP in 2023, thanks to lower capital spendings and current transfers, and is expected to improve in 2024. Debt-to-GDP fell to 47.2% of GDP in 2023 and is expected to further decrease in 2024. External debt remains sustainable, and the risk of debt distress is moderate. 
• The current account deficit (CAD) improved to 9.1% of GDP in 2023, reflecting lower imports of capital goods, oil and food, and is projected to further improve in 2024. Half-year data shows an improvement in the trade balance supported by lower food imports, lower imports in the extractive industry, and higher exports of fish and iron ore. The CAD is projected at 7.9% of GDP in 2024 and will be financed mostly by Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in the extractive industry.

Medium-Term Outlook

The medium-term outlook is positive with growth projected to hover around 7.6% in 2025-2026 (4.8% per capita).  The launch of gas production in the second half of 2025 will boost growth while providing sufficient fiscal margin to finance development projects and support social protection reforms. Beyond extractives, growth will be supported by sustained private demand and investment as prices return to pre-crisis levels, higher exports, and the implementation of the government¡¯s public investment program. Prices are projected to further decelerate and return to pre-crisis levels to stabilize around 2% in 2025 and 2026. The US$3.65-a-day poverty rate is expected to fall to 26.9% in 2025 in line with lower inflation (-0.9 pp) and higher value-added per capita growth in all sectors. The CAD is projected to average 8% of GDP in the medium term with gas exports and lower imports in the extractive industry. FDI related to the extractive industry should finance the current account deficit. Fiscal pressures are expected to decrease in 2025-2026 leading to an average fiscal deficit of 1% of GDP, supported by higher revenue mobilization, lower energy subsidies and lower current transfers. The government¡¯s ambitious public investment program will continue to weigh on the budget and may pose a risk to a downward fiscal and debt-to GDP path between 2025 and 2026.

Risks to the outlook remain elevated. A slowdown in Foreign Direct Investment inflows due to a delay in the second and third phases of the gas extraction project, a slowdown in the main trading partners growth would weigh on medium-term growth, fiscal and external prospects. Mauritania is exposed to various climatic shocks such as drought and floods, which adversely affect human capital, household incomes and agricultural production. Regional insecurity in the Sahel remains a risk. 

Social Context

According to Mauritania¡¯s Human Capital Index (HCI), a child born today will only achieve 38% of his/her productivity in adulthood. Expected years of schooling adjusted for learning are 4.2 years per child on average, while 25% of children are stunted, against a background of relatively low public spending on health and education. Social Assistance spending is high for the region (7.5% of GDP), and the existing safety nets programs reach 47% of the poorest quintile of the population - one of the highest coverages in the region. (Also see ¡®Results¡¯ section.)

Last Updated: Oct 17, 2024

ľ¹ÏÓ°Ôº celebrated in 2024 sixty years of partnership with the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, which began in 1964 with the construction of Nouakchott-Rosso Road support. The partnership was guided by the 2018 (CPF), reviewed in 2021 and which objective is to support the creation of conducive conditions for sustainable and inclusive growth (FY18-23). ľ¹ÏÓ°Ôº in Mauritania has now started to work on the new CPF to cover the period FY25-30.

Under the CPF framework, and aligned with the Government¡¯s development priorities, the World Bank's support in Mauritania focuses on People (Education, Health, Social Inclusion, Nutrition and Population), Planet (Agriculture and Food Resilience), and Infrastructures (Energy and Extractives). The currently comprises eight national projects and seven regional operations, for an overall commitment of $865.5 million.

Growing commitments are expected with a pipeline of new operations in health, energy, and social protection. The commitments of the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the private sector arm of the World Bank, totaled $56,5 million, while the gross commitments of the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) amounted to $300 million as of August 31, 2024.

Last Updated: Oct 17, 2024

Local Government Development Program

The Decentralization and Productive Intermediate Cities Support Project contributes to the development of selected intermediate cities in the South and East and technical support to the decentralization process. It is financed with $66 million from the International Development Association (IDA), and support totaling $5 million from the State budget. The project directly impacts (i) the population of the cities and surrounding rural areas of Rosso, Kiffa, Selibaby, Aioun, and refugees and host communities of the M¡¯bera Camp, Bassikounou, Nema, and Adel Bagrou will get improved access to urban services or electricity from renewable energy sources; (ii) over 140 formal enterprises and 11,000 informal and social actors will have improved access to infrastructure and services to grow their businesses; and (iii) staff and elected representatives of local institutions whose capacity will be reinforced.

Breaking the Cycle of Intergenerational Poverty

The  supports the government¡¯s social protection strategy aimed at protecting poor and vulnerable households and investing in their human capital, breaking the cycle of intergenerational poverty. The project supports three key instruments:

• The (SR), launched in 2016, seeks to support the identification of potential beneficiaries and provide an efficient, transparent mechanism for targeting the poor and vulnerable. The SR has reached national coverage, encompassing comprehensive data for 303,364 households. It has been a valuable tool for 25 governmental and non-governmental users. The registry initiated a new data collection process aiming to update and extend its coverage, enhancing its effectiveness in coordinating social and humanitarian programs. To date, the update is complete in 48 Moughataas out of 63, and the RS aims for complete the updates by the end of 2024.
• The , is a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program, targeting households in extreme poverty. The five-year cycle consists of quarterly cash transfers conditioned on beneficiaries¡¯ participation in social promotion activities designed to increase knowledge of essential family practices (pratiques familiales essentielles, PFE) and investment in early childhood development (ECD).  The program currently supports 128,658 households, poor or extremely poor individuals, of which 54,663 (refugees 7 282) are supported by the social safety net system support project and the rest by the Mauritanian Government's own financing. The selected households receive a quarterly allowance of 3600 MRU or 90 dollars.
• Since 2017, the shock-responsive safety net program, Elmaouna, has provided support to several thousands of households experiencing food insecurity during the period preceding the harvest. Between 2017 and 2023, more than 131,000 households, representing approximately 814,000 individuals, benefited from the Elmaouna program and 24,000 households received assistance under the Tekavoul Choc pilot. The Government will provide 50% of the funding for the 2024 National Response Plan through Elmaouna and Tekavoul vertical and horizontal extension pilot project.

In May 2024, the government and the Bank signed a new agreement to strengthen .

ľ¹ÏÓ°Ôº is supporting Mauritania to develop its low-emissions hydrogen industry, as the country could be a global leader in the nascent hydrogen industry. 

The approach being considered is designed around a series of projects with the overarching goal to support the country in realizing its natural resource potential. The first project aims at identifying integrated value chain opportunities across multiple sectors (renewables, hydrogen, mining) in the domestic market and for export. For this purpose, the potential and feasibility of these integrated value chains will be assessed, and an accommodating environment will be established (legal, regulatory and institutional framework as well as the workforce capacity) to enable the country to fully benefit from the combined potential of its natural resources. Mauritania¡¯s solar and wind power potential lends itself to green hydrogen production as the abundant renewable energy sources can be used for electrolysis. Due to its favorable environment Mauritania is ideally positioned to become a global leader in the nascent hydrogen industry. The mining sector will strongly benefit from domestic hydrogen supplies, which could be used for energy intense processes and help create low-carbon products while keeping a bigger part of the value chain in the country.

Promoting Women¡¯s Empowerment in the Sahel

The (SWEDD) aims to boost the level of empowerment of women and adolescent girls and expedite demographic transition in the region. The project targets girls aged 10 to 19 at a and supports them through a package of evidence-based, age-appropriate interventions to end harmful practices, improve their life skills, keep them in school, and boost their earning potential. The Mauritania SWEDD received a total of $77 million in financing, with $2 million coming from the State budget and $60 million from an additional IDA grant.

Supporting the resilience of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in the Sahel

The stemming from the Nouakchott Declaration (October 2013) addresses key drivers of vulnerability of (agro) pastoral populations in the Sahel to through interventions improving animal health, natural resources management, livestock value chain development, and social and economic inclusion targeting particularly women and youth. The livestock sector is critical to the economy, rural development, and poverty reduction, contributing between 14-16% of GDP in Mauritania. More than 1.35 million persons are expected to benefit from the second phase of the project (2022-2027) in the country, totaling $45 million of IDA financing. 

An was also approved in June 2022 to support short-term recovery and scale up resilience interventions in the face of the severe food insecurity situation and flood. This will benefit at least 236,000 people in the targeted area.

Last Updated: Oct 17, 2024

Mauritania receives external financial assistance from various external organizations such as the African Development Bank, European Union, United Nations, bilateral donors, and the International Monetary Fund. It also receives financial assistance from Arab funds and China.

Last Updated: Oct 17, 2024