Data sources and methodology

A key component of the ASPIRE work is to identify social protection and labor benefits and services captured in household survey instruments. A deep understanding of the social protection system in the country is needed to identify and properly classify social protection benefits and schemes that are different in nature (contributory and non-contributory), in modality (cash, food, near-cash, subsidies) and targeting approach (universal, categorical, and targeted benefits).

Users are strongly encouraged to review the following documentation files when using the ASPIRE database to better understand which social protection programs are included.

To enable time-series analysis, ASPIRE uses different waves of the same national household survey within a country, with a few exceptions related to survey discontinuation and/or changes in survey design (Costa Rica, Djibouti, Liberia, Panama, The Philippines, Russian Federation, India, and The Gambia).

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INDICATORS AT A GLANCE

Data availability

ASPIRE expenditure indicators cover: for 113 countries from 2015 to 2021 and expenditure for 110 countries from 2015 to 2022.

ASPIRE cover 518 surveys in 129 countries, mostly in the developing world, from 1998 to 2021.

Harmonization methodology

The ASPIRE harmonization methodology for household survey data rests on the following three steps:

1. Identification and classification of SPL benefits and services

Household surveys are carefully reviewed to identify SPL program information. Once this information is located, two levels of analysis are implemented: first, variables are created for each of the country specific programs found in the survey. If the original program name is not provided in the survey instrument, the variable will report the corresponding ASPIRE’s program subcategories according to how the question is framed and country context.

Additionally, program variables are aggregated and harmonized into , and 2 private transfer categories. The country specific programs included into these main SPL categories are documented in detail below and are validated by country task teams in close coordination with national counterparts.

In order to generate the indicators, the following variables are also harmonized: household identification number, location (urban/rural), household size, adult equivalent household size, welfare aggregate, household weight and poverty line, defined as the poorest 20 percent of the welfare distribution.

2. Welfare aggregates

Households are ranked in quintiles of the welfare distribution (either household total income or consumption). Special efforts are made to include the most recently updated welfare aggregates officially agreed with National Statistical Offices and /or harmonized by regional poverty teams (or the Socio-Economic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean (in the case of Latin American countries and the ECAPOV database in the case of Eastern Europe and Central Asian countries. These welfare aggregates are also consistent with the ones used by World Bank PovcalNet poverty estimates.

3. PPP conversions

All monetary variables (transfer amounts) and the welfare aggregate are deflated to 2017 US$ PPP values and then converted to international US Dollars according to the following: [all transfers and welfare (t)/CPI (2017)] / [ICP (2017)] where ICP (2017) is the PPP conversion factor base 2017 of private consumption.

Once the information is harmonized performance indicators are generated using .

Program documentation and classification description files

Expenditure

Find the list of programs for which expenditure data are available in ASPIRE, classified according to the respective category.

Performance indicators

The following links provide a description of how information on SPL program participation or transfer amount is captured in the original household surveys. In addition it explains which programs have been aggregated into each of the ASPIRE harmonized SPL categories. Users should be aware of the caveats implicit in the ASPIRE methodology.

SPL-harmonized program variables can be monetary (transfer amount) or participatory, depending on how the information is collected by the survey instrument. Monetary values, including welfare, are expressed in daily PPP.

Indicators definitions

Expenditure and program size indicators

Expenditure refers to the total social assistance program expenditure including spending on benefits and on administrative costs and is expressed as percent of GDP. The indicator captures both the recurrent and capital program budget and is based on administrative program records. The indicator is calculated for program categories (unconditional cash transfer, conditional cash transfer, social pension, etc.) by summing up program level expenditures for the respective category.

Program size refers to the program number of beneficiaries in the rolls based on administrative sources (not yet available).

Performance indicators

ASPIRE provides information on the following performance indicators:

Average per capita transfer: Average per capita transfer among program beneficiaries (daily 2017 $PPP). The indicator is estimated by program type, for the entire population and by quintiles of both the post-transfer and pre-transfer welfare distribution. Programs are aggregated into social assistance, social insurance and labor market according to ASPIRE classification. Indicators for all SPL programs provide the totals summing up the social assistance, social insurance and labor market figures. For each household, per capita average transfer is estimated as total transfers received divided by the household size.

Coverage: Percentage of population participating in social protection and labor programs (includes direct and indirect beneficiaries). The indicator is estimated by program type, for the entire population and by quintiles of both the post-transfer and pre-transfer welfare distribution. Programs are aggregated into social assistance, social insurance and labor market according to ASPIRE classification. Indicators for all SPL programs provide the totals summing up the social assistance, social insurance and labor market figures. Specifically, coverage is (number of individuals in the quintile who live in a household where at least one member receives the transfer)/(number of individuals in that quintile).

Benefit incidence: Percentage of benefits going to each group/quintile of the post-transfer (or pre-transfer) welfare distribution relative to the total benefits going to the population. The indicator is estimated by program type and by quintiles of both the post-transfer and pre-transfer welfare distribution. Programs are aggregated into social assistance, social insurance and labor market according to ASPIRE classification. Indicators for all SPL programs provide the totals summing up the social assistance, social insurance and labor market figures. Specifically, benefit incidence is equal to (sum of all transfers received by all individuals in the quintile)/(sum of all transfers received by all individuals in the population). The indicator includes both direct and indirect beneficiaries.

Beneficiary incidence: Percentage of program beneficiaries in a quintile relative to the total number of beneficiaries in the population. The indicator is estimated by program type and by quintiles of both the post-transfer and pre-transfer welfare distribution. Programs are aggregated into social assistance, social insurance and labor market according to ASPIRE classification. Indicators for all SPL programs provide the totals summing up the social assistance, social insurance and labor market figures. Specifically, beneficiary incidence is (Number of individuals in each quintile who live in a household where at least one member participates in a SPL program)/(Number of individuals participating in SPL programs in the population). The indicator includes both direct and indirect beneficiaries.

Adequacy of benefits: The total transfer amount received by all beneficiaries in a quintile as a share of the total welfare of beneficiaries in that quintile. The indicator is estimated by program type, for the entire population and by quintiles of both the post-transfer and pre-transfer welfare distribution. Programs are aggregated into social assistance, social insurance and labor market according to ASPIRE classification. Specifically, adequacy of benefits is (Amount of transfers receives by a quintile)/(Total income or consumption of beneficiaries in that quintile). Indicators for all SPL programs provide the totals summing up the social assistance, social insurance and labor market figures. The indicator includes both direct and indirect beneficiaries.

Gini inequality reduction: Simulated percentage change on Gini inequality coefficient due to SPL programs. The Gini coefficient of the population’s income distribution is measured assuming the absence of the programs (pre-transfer welfare distribution). Specifically, Gini inequality reduction is computed as (Inequality pre transfer- inequality post transfer) / inequality pre transfer. The indicator is estimated for the entire population and by program type. Programs are aggregated into social assistance, social insurance and labor market according ASPIRE classification. Indicators for all SPL programs provide the totals summing up the social assistance, social insurance and labor market figures.

Poverty headcount reduction: Simulated change (%) on poverty headcount due to SPL programs. Poverty headcount ratio is the percentage of the population below the poverty line and it is measured assuming the absence of the programs (pre-transfer welfare distribution). Specifically, poverty headcount reduction is computed as (poverty headcount pre transfer- poverty headcount post transfer) / poverty headcount pre transfer. The indicator is estimated for the entire population and by program type. Programs are aggregated into social assistance, social insurance and labor market according to ASPIRE classification. Indicators for all SPL programs provide the totals summing up the social assistance, social insurance and labor market figures.

Poverty gap reduction: Simulated change (%) on poverty gap due to SPL programs. The poverty gap index is the average percentage shortfall in income of poor people, from the poverty line and it is measured assuming the absence of the programs (pre-transfer welfare distribution). Specifically, poverty gap reduction is computed as (poverty gap pre transfer- poverty gap post transfer) / poverty gap pre transfer. The indicator is estimated for the entire population and by program type. Programs are aggregated into social assistance, social insurance and labor market according to ASPIRE classification. Indicators for all SPL programs provide the totals summing up the social assistance, social insurance and labor market figures.

Benefit-cost ratio: Reduction in poverty gap obtained for each $1 spent in SPL programs. The indicator is estimated for the entire population and by program type. Specifically, benefit-cost ratio is estimated as (poverty gap before transfer - poverty gap after transfer)/ total transfer amount. Programs are aggregated into social assistance, social insurance and labor market according to ASPIRE classification. Indicators for all SPL programs provide the totals summing up the social assistance, social insurance and labor market figures.

Program duplication and overlap: Percentage of population receiving no program or percentage of beneficiaries receiving one or more programs from different SPL. The indicator is estimated by program type, for the entire population and by quintiles of both the pre-transfer and post-transfer welfare distribution. Programs are aggregated into social assistance, social insurance and labor market according to ASPIRE classification. Indicators for all SPL programs provide the totals summing up the social assistance, social insurance and labor market figures.

Indicator caveats

Users should keep in mind the following disclaimers and data caveats when interpreting ASPIRE Performance indicators

Household surveys have their own limitations. It is important to note that the extent to which information on specific transfers and programs is captured in the household surveys can vary a lot across countries. Often household surveys do not capture the universe of social protection and labor (SPL) programs in the country, in best practice cases just the largest programs. Many household surveys have limited information on SPL programs, some surveys collect information only on participation without including the transfer amounts; and others include program information mixed with private transfers, making it difficult to isolate individual SPL programs.

Therefore information on country SPL programs included in ASPIRE is limited to what is captured in the respective national household survey and does not necessarily represent the universe of programs existing in the country. In addition, the availability of ASPIRE indicators depends on the type of questions included in the survey. If transfer amounts are available, for example, adequacy and impact on poverty indicators can be generated. If only program participation questions are included in the survey, only non-monetary indicators can be generated such as coverage or beneficiary incidence.

As a consequence, ASPIRE performance indicators are not fully comparable across harmonized program categories and countries.

However, household surveys have the unique advantages of allowing analysis of program impact on household welfare. With such caveats in mind, ASPIRE indicators based on household surveys provide an approximate measure of social protection systems performance.

Generally, ASPIRE indicators are based on a first level analysis of original household survey data (with no imputations) and on a unified methodology that does not necessarily reflect country-specific knowledge and in depth country analysis relying on different data sources (administrative program level data). While efforts are made to ensure consistency between ASPIRE indicators and WB regional and country reports, there may still be cases where ASPIRE performance indicators differ from official WB country reports.

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