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Foreign and Domestic Firms: Long Run Employment Effects of Export Opportunities

Brian McCaig (Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics),

Nina Pavcnik (Dartmouth College, Department of Economics, BREAD, CEPR, IZA, and NBER),

Woan Foong Wong (University of Oregon, Department of Economics)

Presenters:

Time:

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

10:00 ¨C 11:00 AM  (ET)

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Abstract

This paper leverages the novel methodology by Whited and Zhao (2021) to identify financial distortions and applies it to a sample of 24 European countries. The analyses reveal that less developed economies face more severe financial misallocation. Distortions in the allocation of financial resources raise the relative cost of finance for younger, smaller, and more productive firms. Counterfactual analysis indicates that alleviating financial distortions could boost aggregate productivity by approximately 30-70 percent. On average, 75 percent of these gains across countries result from better access to finance, with the remainder from optimizing the debt-to-equity ratio. The paper also quantifies the link between financial misallocation and real-input allocative inefficiency, showing that reducing financial misallocation from the median to the 25th percentile of the cross-industry distribution can increase aggregate productivity by an average of 5.2 percent. The effect is larger, at 6.4 percent, for industries heavily reliant on external finance.

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