Latest Food Security Data ¨C December 16, 2024
Domestic food price inflation remains high in many low- and middle-income countries. Inflation higher than 5% is experienced in 68.8% of low-income countries (1.2 percentage points lower since the last update on November 15, 2024), 46.7% of lower-middle-income countries (1.1 percentage points lower), 33% of upper-middle-income countries (3.0 percentage points lower), and 10.9% of high-income countries (1.8 percentage points higher). In real terms, food price inflation exceeded overall inflation in 59.8% of the 164 countries where data is available.
Since the last Update on November 15, 2024, the agricultural, export, and cereal price indices closed 12, 25, and 1 percent higher, respectively. A sharp increase in cocoa and coffee prices, which increased 28 and 26 percent, respectively, drove the increase in the export price index. Maize and wheat prices closed 3 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and rice prices closed 2 percent lower. On a year-on-year basis, prices of all cereals in November were lower than a year ago: maize 9% lower, rice 10% lower, and wheat 2% lower. Maize and rice prices are 14 and 26 percent higher, respectively, than in January 2020, while wheat prices are 1 percent lower. (See ¡°pink sheet¡± data for agricultural commodity and food commodity prices indices, updated monthly.)
In the , the Agriculture Market Information System notes that global wheat, maize, rice, and soybean prices are lower than in 2023, with significant reductions observed across all categories. This reflects a relatively stable global market for the current marketing season, although uncertainties linger. Climate conditions in 2024, projected to be the warmest year on record, have influenced crop yields in varying ways. Although some regions benefited, others faced challenges, underscoring the vulnerability of agricultural systems to weather anomalies.
In the , FAO indicates that global food production is experiencing diverse trends across commodities. Declines are projected for wheat, maize, and sugar, whereas outputs of dairy, fisheries, meats, oilseeds, and rice are expected to grow. These shifts have implications for global consumption, trade, and stock levels, although food production remains highly sensitive to disruptions from adverse weather conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy changes. These factors threaten the balance between supply and demand, potentially undermining global food security. The Food Outlook also describes significant changes in the fertilizer market. After a challenging 2022 marked by high costs and limited production, 2023 saw notable recovery. In 2024, nitrogen production is expected to remain stable, phosphate production to decline slightly, and potassium to continue its growth trajectory. Lower natural gas prices, a key input for nitrogen fertilizers, have been instrumental in stabilizing production costs.
According to the , an estimated 343 million people are acutely food insecure across 74 countries where WFP operates¡ª10% more than in 2023 and nearly 200 million more than before the pandemic. An estimated 1.9 million people are on the brink of famine in 2024, primarily in Gaza and Sudan but also in Haiti, Mali, and pockets of South Sudan. Conflict, economic factors, and climate remain the main drivers of food insecurity, with 65 percent of acutely food-insecure people living in fragile or conflict-affected situations.
Following Russia¡¯s invasion of Ukraine, trade-related policies imposed by countries have surged. The global food crisis has been partially made worse by the growing number of food and fertilizer trade restrictions put in place by countries with a goal of increasing domestic supply and reducing prices. As of December 2024, 17 countries have implemented 22 food export bans, and 8 have implemented 12 export-limiting measures.
How the World Bank addresses food insecurity
Our food and nutrition security portfolio now spans across 90 countries. It includes both short term interventions such as expanding social protection, also longer-term resilience such as boosting productivity and climate-smart agriculture. The Bank's intervention is expected to benefit 296 million people. Some examples include:
- In Honduras, the (COMRURAL II and III) aims to generate entrepreneurship and employment opportunities while promoting a climate-conscious, nutrition-smart strategy in agri-food value chains. To date, the program is benefiting around 6,287 rural small-scale producers (of which 33% are women, 15% youth, and 11% indigenous) of coffee, vegetables, dairy, honey, and other commodities through enhanced market connections and adoption of improved agricultural technologies and has created 6,678 new jobs.
- In Honduras, the (PROSASUR) strives to enhance food security for impoverished and vulnerable rural households in the country¡¯s Dry Corridor. This project has supported 12,202 extremely vulnerable families through nutrition-smart agricultural subprojects, food security plans, community nutrition plans, and nutrition and hygiene education. Within the beneficiary population, 70% of children under the age of five and their mothers now have a dietary diversity score of at least 4 (i.e., consume at least four food groups).
- The $2.75 billion Food Systems Resilience Program for Eastern and Southern Africa, helps countries in Eastern and Southern Africa increase the resilience of the region¡¯s food systems and ability to tackle growing food insecurity. Now in phase three, the program will enhance inter-agency food crisis response also boost medium- and long-term efforts for resilient agricultural production, sustainable development of natural resources, expanded market access, and a greater focus on food systems resilience in policymaking.
- A for the Malawi Agriculture Commercialization Project (AGCOM) to increase commercialization of select agriculture value chain products and to provide immediate and effective response to an eligible crisis or emergency.
- The to strengthen decentralized service delivery, upgrade water supply, restore and protect landscapes, and strengthen the resilience of food and livelihood systems in the drought-prone ¡®Grand Sud¡¯.
- A that works with refugees and host communities in four northern provinces of Burundi to improve food and nutrition security, build socio-economic infrastructure, and support micro-enterprise development through a participatory approach.
- The $175 million is helping build resilience and boost productivity of agricultural and pastoral activities in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. More than 130,000 farmers and members of pastoral communities are benefiting from small and medium-sized irrigation initiatives. The project is building a portfolio of bankable irrigation investment projects of around 68,000 ha, particularly in medium and large-scale irrigation in the Sahel region.
- Through the $50 million , 329,000 smallholder farmers in Central Africa Republic have received seeds, farming tools and training in agricultural and post-harvest techniques to boost crop production and become more resilient to climate and conflict risks.
- The $15 million is helping increase agriculture production and access to food to vulnerable families. Over 72,000 farmers have received drought-resistant and high-yielding seeds, fertilizers, agricultural equipment; and livestock vaccines for the country-wide vaccination program. In addition, 8,000 vulnerable households have received cash transfer to purchase food and tackle food insecurity.
- The $60 million has reached nearly 3 million African farmers (39% women) with critical climate smart agriculture tools and information services in partnership with the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers (CGIAR). These tools and services are helping farmers to increase production and build resilience in the face of climate crisis. In Mali, studies showed that farmers using recommendations from the AICCRA-supported RiceAdvice had on average 0.9 ton per hectare higher yield and US$320 per hectare higher income.
- The $766 million is working to increase preparedness against food insecurity and improve the resilience of food systems in West Africa. The program is increasing digital advisory services for agriculture and food crisis prevention and management, boosting adaption capacity of agriculture system actors, and investing in regional food market integration and trade to increase food security. An additional $345 million is currently under preparation for Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo.
- A $150 million grant for the second phase of the Yemen Food Security Response and Resilience Project, which will help address food insecurity, strengthen resilience and protect livelihoods.
- $50 million grant of additional financing for Tajikistan to mitigate food and nutrition insecurity impacts on households and enhance the overall resilience of the agriculture sector.
- A $125 million project in Jordan aims to strengthen the development the agriculture sector by enhancing its climate resilience, increasing competitiveness and inclusion, and ensuring medium- to long-term food security.
- A $300 million project in Bolivia that will contribute to increasing food security, market access and the adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices.
- A $315 million loan to support Chad, Ghana and Sierra Leone to increase their preparedness against food insecurity and to improve the resilience of their food systems.
- A $500 million Emergency Food Security and Resilience Support Project to bolster Egypt's efforts to ensure that poor and vulnerable households have uninterrupted access to bread, help strengthen the country's resilience to food crises, and support to reforms that will help improve nutritional outcomes.
- A $130 million loan for Tunisia, seeking to lessen the impact of the Ukraine war by financing vital soft wheat imports and providing emergency support to cover barley imports for dairy production and seeds for smallholder farmers for the upcoming planting season.
In May 2022, the World Bank Group and the G7 Presidency co-convened the Global Alliance for Food Security, which aims to catalyze an immediate and concerted response to the unfolding global hunger crisis. The Alliance has developed the publicly accessible , which provides timely information for global and local decision-makers to help improve coordination of the policy and financial response to the food crisis.
The heads of the FAO, IMF, World Bank Group, WFP, and WTO released a Third Joint Statement on February 8, 2023. The statement calls to prevent a worsening of the food and nutrition security crisis, further urgent actions are required to (i) rescue hunger hotspots, (ii) facilitate trade, improve the functioning of markets, and enhance the role of the private sector, and (iii) reform and repurpose harmful subsidies with careful targeting and efficiency. Countries should balance short-term urgent interventions with longer-term resilience efforts as they respond to the crisis.
Last Updated: Dec 16, 2024
