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Overview

Sao Tome and Principe has been a multiparty, semi-presidential, democratic system since its independence, and it has been a model for the democratic transition of power in Central Africa. The Independent Democratic Action (ADI) party, which holds 30 out of 55 parliamentary seats, has been mandated to govern from 2022 to 2026.

Economy
Sao Tome and Principe (STP) is a small, two-island, lower-middle-income country of approximately 960 square km. Despite its size and remote location, it has a significant untapped natural wealth, including pristine rainforests with a rich and unique biodiversity, which is favorable for nature-based tourism.

The country faces structural challenges typical of small, remote countries. Its small size and low population limit the development of large-scale economic activities, resulting in a small and undiversified productive base. Its remoteness and insularity increase trade costs and make it more vulnerable to terms-of-trade and climate shocks. Despite a GDP per capita of about $2,949, the country faces significant socio-economic vulnerability due to elevated poverty, income inequality (Gini index of 40.7), and a lack of employment opportunities, which in turn has been contributing to rising emigrations levels. Up to 45% of the population was living on less than $3.65 per day (2017 PPP), the international poverty line for lower-middle income countries like STP. This includes the 15.7% of the population living on less than $2.15 per day.

The business environment is hampered by weak infrastructure, particularly costly, unreliable electricity, fragile institutions, limited connectivity, and high vulnerability to climate shocks. Public finances are strained by the high cost of providing public services due to a lack of scale in the provision of public goods, compounded by low domestic revenue mobilization and declining external financing.

The country's development has been driven by externally financed public expenditure, but this growth model has become unsustainable due to the structural decline and volatility of grants. To grow sustainably, STP needs to promote a private sector-led growth model focused on improving human capital, infrastructure, and the business environment to unleash its potential.

Recent developments and outlook
Real GDP growth is projected at 1.1% in 2024 and projected to reach nearly 3.6% by 2026, driven by stronger agricultural exports, tourism growth, the expansion of infrastructure development projects, and energy reforms.

The fiscal balance remains in deficit, projected at -2.0% of GDP in 2024, but it is projected to improve in the medium-term with the resumption of external grant disbursements, the full impact of the VAT implementation, and anticipated fiscal consolidation. Inflationary pressures eased from Q2 2024 and inflation is projected at 16.1% in 2024 as the Central Bank of STP (BCSTP) tightens liquidity conditions. It is projected to decline to 7.5% by 2026.

The current account deficit (CAD) is estimated to remain large in 2024 but projected to slowly improve in the medium-term as the trade deficit narrows, supported by the implementation of expected energy reforms and subsequent decline in fuel imports, tourist arrivals, and agricultural exports growth. 

International reserves continued to decline in 2024 to finance energy imports, putting at risk the country¡¯s fragile macroeconomic situation and its capacity to import. International reserves are projected to improve in the medium-term with the resumption of external financing and the implementation of energy reforms.

However, the economic outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty and downside risks. Delays in the implementation of urgent reforms could further undermine the government's fiscal position and foreign exchange reserves. The reduced availability of external financing, continued disruption of global supply chains, and climate-related events could weaken STP's prospects for growth and further impede poverty reduction.

Last Updated: Oct 09, 2024

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Additional Resources

Country Office Contacts

Main Office Contact
Avenida das Na??es Unidas
Pr¨¦dio das Na??es Unidas
C.P. 109
S?o Tom¨¦
S?o Tom¨¦ e Pr¨ªncipe
For general information and inquiries
Wilson Mbanino Piassa
External Affairs Associate
Luanda, Angola
+244 222 393 389
For project-related issues and complaints