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Background

Key Findings:

• The Development-Conflict-Climate Nexus. Yemen faces a unique and challenging interplay of development, conflict, and climate change. The ongoing conflict has led to a humanitarian crisis affecting approximately 80% of households, limiting access to basic services and exacerbating vulnerabilities. Climate change adds another layer of complexity, intensifying existing issues like water scarcity and food insecurity. Addressing these intertwined challenges requires a coordinated approach that integrates development needs with climate action.
• Economic Impacts of Climate Change. Yemen¡¯s annual GDP could decline by an average of 3.9% by 2040 under pessimistic climate scenarios, largely due to decreased agricultural productivity and infrastructure damage. Conversely, a more optimistic climate scenario, characterized by increased precipitation, could lead to a projected annual GDP growth of 1.5%. However, more frequent, intense precipitation, coupled with longer dry periods, pose significant challenges without the right policies and investments in adaptation. These challenges underscore the urgent need for proactive climate adaptation measures that can stabilize and potentially enhance economic growth.
• Vulnerability to Climate Hazards. Around 50% of Yemen¡¯s population is exposed to at least one significant climate hazard¡ªsuch as extreme heat, drought, or flooding. These hazards disproportionately affect marginalized communities, intensifying food insecurity and poverty. As a result, many households resort to coping strategies that undermine their long-term resilience. A comprehensive understanding of these vulnerabilities is essential for developing targeted interventions that build adaptive capacity.
• Climate Opportunities Amidst Challenges. Despite the daunting challenges posed by climate change, Yemen¡¯s projected climate shifts, particularly the potential increase in precipitation, offer opportunities for reducing, although not eliminating, the gap between supply and demand. Targeted investments in water management and soil conservation, coupled with investments in climate smart agriculture, can help increase yields by up to 13.5% under optimistic climate scenarios for the period of 2041 to 2050. Such improvements could significantly bolster food security and nutrition, providing much-needed relief to vulnerable populations.
• Risks to the Fisheries Sector. The fisheries sector, a critical source of livelihood for many Yemenis, faces substantial threats from climate change. Projections indicate a potential decline of up to 23% in fish stocks due to rising sea temperatures and altered marine ecosystems. Implementing sustainable fishing practices, alongside effective coastal management strategies, is crucial to protecting livelihoods and ensuring food security for coastal communities.
• The Importance of Disaster Risk Management. The increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters, such as flash floods, pose significant risks to urban areas and essential infrastructure. Without robust disaster risk management strategies, Yemen could face considerable economic shocks and losses. Effective planning, investment in resilient infrastructure, and community preparedness initiatives, including social transfers, are critical to minimizing these risks and protecting vulnerable populations.
• Renewable Energy as a Pathway to Resilience. Yemen has significant potential for renewable energy development, which can be a cornerstone of a climate-sensitive recovery strategy. Investments in renewable energy infrastructure are crucial to providing reliable electricity for essential services, including healthcare, education, water supply and sanitation. Expanding access to renewable energy sources can help mitigate the impacts of climate change while supporting economic development.
• Safeguarding Human Capital. Climate change exacerbates existing health challenges in Yemen, leading to increased healthcare costs and strain on already fragile health systems. It is projected that climate-related health issues could cost the country over US$5 billion in excess health costs by 2050. Addressing these challenges requires integrating climate resilience into public health planning, with a focus on vulnerable groups such as women and children.
• Barriers to Climate Finance. Yemen faces significant obstacles to accessing climate finance, including low institutional capacity, high perceived risks, and inadequate coordination among stakeholders. Strengthening the private sector and creating a conducive environment for investment are essential to mobilizing climate-responsive funding. Innovative financing mechanisms and guarantee instruments can help bridge the funding gap, leverage the private sector and support climate adaptation efforts.
• Whole-of-Society Approach for Resilience. To effectively address the multifaceted challenges of development, conflict and climate change, a whole-of-society approach is necessary. Engaging diverse stakeholders¡ªincluding local communities, particularly women and the youth¡ªin decision-making processes will enhance the effectiveness of climate actions and promote inclusive solutions. Building local capacities and fostering community ownership are crucial for ensuring long-term resilience and sustainable development.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The CCDRs recommendations are framed around five Higher Level Objectives:

• Develop spatially targeted, scalable and people centered area-based approaches to build resilience and reduce multidimensional poverty.
• Improve water and food security and build a resilient fisheries sector amid uncertainty.
• Promote disaster risk management and climate-resilient power service provision centered around renewable energy.
• Foster adaptive human development by advancing health and human capital, prioritizing women and vulnerable groups.
• Scale up innovative climate finance and empower the private sector through people centered approaches.