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With the quality of his soil degrading, a farmer in Vietnam¡¯s Mekong Delta is growing less rice and raising more ducks and fish to give his fields a rest and diversify his income. Halfway around the world, a farmer in Niger is turning to drought-tolerant seeds to better cope with increasingly unpredictable rainfall.

The rich agricultural lands of Vietnam¡¯s Mekong Delta and the tropical savannah and deserts of Africa's Sahel share an unlikely bond: both face the unprecedented prospect of greater food-production challenges in a future fueled by a changing climate. While climate change will affect agriculture in many countries, these two areas of the world are already seeing its impact through increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and hotter temperatures. These challenges also come with an opportunity for possible solutions, including more efficient use of water and innovations to boost productivity.

Economically and environmentally, and the -- Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger -- could not be more different.  Vietnam¡¯s per capita GDP is roughly . The G5 Sahel countries, grouped together in 2014 for regional development and security in West Africa, are among the planet¡¯s poorest, scoring low on the human-development index and with long histories of conflict.

Agricultural Losses Projected

The Mekong Delta is Vietnam¡¯s most productive agricultural area, contributing half of the country¡¯s rice production, 95% of its rice exports and a third of Vietnam¡¯s agricultural GDP. But in recent years, construction of upstream dams and other infrastructure has reduced the amount of fresh water available for crops, prompting farmers to extract groundwater. As a result, the land is sinking rapidly and eroding, allowing seawater to reach rivers, canals and crop lands that need fresh water to thrive.  With climate change, the threats from sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion will likely increase, which could make some crops impossible to grow, according to the Vietnam ¨C the World Bank Group¡¯s new core diagnostic to help countries tackle climate and development challenges together and chart a low-carbon, climate-resilient development path.

According to economic modeling done by the , by 2030, Vietnam could experience agricultural losses of 5.6% under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6, which assumes CO₂ emissions start declining by 2020 and go to zero by 2100. Losses would reach 6.0% under RCP4.5, in which emissions peak around 2040, then decline, and 6.2% under RCP8.5, in which emissions rise throughout the 21^st Century. These estimates are compared to a scenario without climate change where agricultural output is estimated to increase by 25% from 2010 to 2030.

In the Sahel, an Urgent Need to Step Up Development

Historically harsh conditions in the Sahel countries will likely become more extreme in a changing climate, putting more pressure on food supplies ¨C and on a population that is frequently on the move internally and to neighboring countries. Since 2016, a series of droughts has resulted in agricultural losses and worsened food insecurity, and rising food prices since 2021 have made the situation worse.

The Sahel is already one of the world¡¯s most vulnerable places to climate change. If it becomes drier and hotter in the future as expected, changes in rainfall patterns would negatively affect the yields of rainfed crops, with the magnitude of losses increasing over time, according to the . By 2050, crop revenues could fall 5 to 10% and climate shocks could cause an additional 13.5 million people to fall into poverty by 2050.

Even in the absence of climate change, it will be challenging to reduce poverty if economic growth in the Sahel remains only moderate while population growth continues at a quick pace, according to the Sahel CCDR.  Stepping up development is therefore an urgent priority. The CCDR observes that, ¡°Rapid, resilient, and inclusive growth is both the best form of adaptation to climate change and the best strategy for meeting development goals in an effective, sustainable, and productive manner. A country that makes agriculture resilient and diversifies its economy will be better prepared to handle climate-related shocks.¡±

Water: Making the Most of a Critical Resource

A large part of the solution for Vietnam and the Sahel starts with fresh water supply and management: for Vietnam, making the most of a once-abundant resource, and for the Sahel, adapting to increased scarcity.

ľ¹ÏÓ°Ôº¡¯s has helped 1.2 million farmers cope with changing conditions in the delta. Farmers in coastal provinces have learned techniques to adapt to the increasingly salty water. They produce rice and shrimp in the same fields: growing rice in the wet season when freshwater is available and raising shrimp in the dry season when the water becomes more saline.  

A new regional master plan for the Mekong Delta places climate adaptation at the forefront and promotes an integrated Delta-wide approach to development. A combination of hard infrastructure and nature-based solutions would help retain flood waters in the upper delta during the wet season and allow them to be released during the dry season, when the fresh water can recharge the groundwater in the flood plain and help offset saltwater intrusion. Other key actions include protecting and restoring mangroves that act as a buffer against storms and strengthening the ecosystems of rivers and coastal areas while providing livelihoods for people near them.

The Vietnam CCDR also recommends support for crops that emit fewer greenhouse gases than traditional rice farming, as well as the use of more efficient water management practices such as alternate wetting and drying of rice paddies, which not only saves water but also reduces potent methane emissions at the same time.

In the Sahel, governments should scale up adaptation programs by 2030: invest in strategic grain reservices; improve veterinary care for livestock; strengthen agroforestry; and expand efficient irrigation and water harvesting practices. Expanding the irrigation network would make sense now, and in the future, according to the CCDR.

Building resilience in the population is key. To help people cope with climate impacts, especially drought, the government of Niger began supporting 15,400 households with in November 2021. Taking action early to deal with a potential disaster can have far-reaching benefits, in large part by keeping households from making desperate decisions to survive, such as taking children out of school, cutting down on the number of meals or selling productive assets. To build up food stocks, thousands of Niger farmers have received drought-resistant seeds, livestock feed, fertilizers and help with agricultural techniques to boost productivity through the and the .

While the need for food security is global, climate change will affect countries differently, and no one-size-fits-all approach will work. But the solutions for the Sahel and Vietnam have potential to serve as examples for other countries at the leading edge of a changing climate. ľ¹ÏÓ°Ôº Group¡¯s is increasing support for climate smart agriculture, including nature-based solutions where appropriate. Tackling food loss and waste will be part of the effort, along with helping countries manage flood and drought risks. The aim is a triple win: enhanced productivity, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and improved resilience.