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This update focuses on the human toll of macroeconomic shocks in terms of lost jobs and deteriorating livelihoods in MENA. Growth is forecast to decelerate in 2023 to 1.9 percent amidst low oil production and subdued prices, while oil importers continue to grapple with the effects of the tightening of global financial conditions. The authors estimate that the macroeconomic shocks of 2020-22 led to an additional 5.1 million individuals becoming unemployed in MENA. The report advocates for maintaining the flexibility of real wages in times of shocks, while protecting the vulnerable with well-targeted cash transfers.

High inflation and rising food prices pose a challenge to economies across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where growth is expected to slow in the coming year to 3% after growing 5.8% in 2022. Oil exporters, who benefited from a windfall in 2022, will decelerate the most, but a large gap remains between high-income countries and the rest of the region. Titled ¡°Altered Destinies: The Long-Term Effects of Rising Prices and Food Insecurity in the Middle East and North Africa,¡± this twice-yearly edition focuses specifically on the impact of food price inflation on food insecurity.

Across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, land is a scarce and valuable resource. The projected increase in land demand due to demographic trends, coupled with decreasing land supply due to climatic and governance factors, indicate a looming crisis happening at a time when the region is also facing dramatic social and political transformation. Reserves for land cultivation are almost exhausted, while total built-up area will need to expand to accommodate high demographic growth.

The MENA region is facing vulnerabilities, which the current crises¡ªthe pandemic followed by the war in Ukraine¡ªhave exacerbated. Food and energy prices are higher, hurting the most vulnerable, and rising interest rates are making debt service more burdensome. The report explores some of the resulting vulnerabilities for MENA, arguing that poor governance- lack of government transparency and accountability - is at the root of the region¡¯s development failings.

The report finds that a prominent reason behind MENA¡¯s unmet jobs challenge is a lack of market contestability in the private sector. The lack of dynamism is due to the prevalence of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). They operate in sectors where there is little economic rationale and enjoy favorable treatment¡ªflouting the principles of competitive neutrality. To change this reality, the state must reshape its relationship toward markets, workers, and women.

The argument that digitalization fosters economic activity has been strengthened by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Because digital technologies are general-purpose technologies that are usable across a variety of economic activities, the gains from achieving universal coverage of digital services are likely to be large and shared throughout each economy. The report presents evidence that the socioeconomic gains of digitalizing the economies of the region are huge.